2nd Annual "And The Oscar Goes To"

What do Mike Francessa and I have in common? Unfortunately not as much as I would like. But the answer is our obsession with the Oscars. Its Hollywood's biggest night and being the movie junkie that I am, it's only fitting that I get caught up with the Oscars. I am such a sick person that I rattled off almost every winner of the 5 major categories of the last 20 years (true story, just ask Mr. IMDB Lenny the Critic). Usually I like to see majority of the films up for awards however this year I am severely slacking. I'm not happy about it. In fact I may have a cram session on Saturday just to make myself feel better, but I don't know...I don't know if we'll have enough time. Shockingly I've only seen 3 of the 10 movies nominated for Best Picture. Usually I'm well over 50%. But I've done my homework, seen some trailers, read some reviews, watched some award shows, had dinner with Roger Ebert, sat courtside with Jack, smoked pot with Johnny Hopkins and Sloan Kettering and then decided to blog. Based on my research there are at LEAST 4 absolute, stone cold, lock it up, put it in pen sure thing bets that will not lose. And the rest are kind of up in the air. So here are my predictions...

Best Picture: 
Nominees: Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are Alright, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone


What will Win: The King's Speech - This is the textbook Academy movie in which they can't say no to. They love British time piece movies with great costumes, elaborate set designs and classically trained actors (See Shakespeare In Love). I have not seen this movie, but it won Best Picture at all the other award shows and based on the reviews and opinions and buzz, I think this nudges out The Social Network. 


What Should Win: Inception - It's easily the most creative, unique, entertaining movie of the year, however it will surely get overlooked. The consensus opinion for the "only reasonable threat" is Social Network. I really enjoyed Social Network but I didn't think it was amazing. When I saw Inception I was completely wow-ed by the experience. But Christopher Nolan wasn't even nominated for Best Director, which sums up how the Academy feels about this movie (and seriously what does Nolan have to do get a nomination).

Darkhorse: The Social Network - It's not much of a darkhorse considering its the only real competition. But I just think King's Speech has this thing locked up so if Social Network wins it will technically be an upset. Its a two horse race for sure. I loved the speed and pacing of this movie, and I'm positive that those two aspects got this movie nominated. I mean its a moderate story, but because everyone loves Facebook and really didn't know all the details, people became enthralled. However, its the story telling, speed and tempo that got this movie nominated.





Best Actor: 
Nominees: Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), Colin Firth (The King's Speech), James Franco (127 Hours)


Who Will Win: Colin Firth (The King's Speech) - This is 1 of my ABSOLUTE locks and I will be betting on this. Not only is the competition very weak, but chips are in his corner. The biggest threat is Jeff Bridges, but he won last year for Crazy Heart and I don't think the Academy is going to make him the first back to back winner in this category since Tom Hanks (Not to mention that the role of Rooster Cogburn in the movie True Grit has already won Best Actor award for John Wayne in 1969).

Who Should Win: Colin Firth (The King's Speech) - I haven't seen this movie, in fact the only I've seen in Social Network but this is a sure thing. Firth has been around for a while, gaining respect for years and I have a feeling that the Academy is going to reward him for this. Seriously, this is a shoe in.

Darkhorse: Jesse Eisenberg - Just for the sake of format I will give a darkhorse. As good as Eisenberg was, I would be shocked if Firth didn't win.

Best Supporting Actor: 
Nominees: Christian Bale (The Fighter), John Hawkes (Winter's Bone), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are Alright), Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)

Who Will Win: Christian Bale (The Fighter) - This is the biggest lock of the night. I may bet this seperately and as part of a parlay because this award is already over. Bale lost nearly 30 pounds almost to the point of which he was unrecognizable (a known weakspot of the Academy) and absolutely commanded the screen. He has won the Golden Globe and the Screen Actors Guild award, which means he is being recognized by peers and critics alike. Take this one to the bank.

Who Should Win: Jeremy Renner (The Town) - Renner has now been nominating for acting awards in back to back years and to borrow a term from a friend, he is "piping hot". Renner was simply perfect as the psychotic bank robber that it was almost scary. We've seen plenty of bank robber and plenty of killers in the past, but there was something about this performance that stood out. It was cold, succinct and strangely compelling because he was completely unpredictable. I'm sure you will be seeing a lot more Renner in the next few years.

Darkhorse: Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech) - Rush is an academy favorite having already won a Best Actor award in the 90's and theres a good chance that this movie makes a clean sweep of the major awards. Rush plays the speech therapist who helps the future king overcome his speech impediment. I still can't see how Bale doesn't win this award. LOCK IT UP.

Best Actress:
Nominees: Annette Benning (The Kid's Are Alright), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone), Natalie Portman (Black Swan), Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine) 


Who Will Win: Natalie Portman (Black Swan) - I'm pretty sure this is a shoe in. She's gained all kinds of accolades as the schizophrenic ballerina. Being able to pull off multiple personalities is not easy, in fact it often time leads to unintentional comedy. The other major factor that she has going for her is the awesome girl on girl love scene with Mila Kunis (if your girl makes you watch this, that scene can make it worthwhile) which shows her fearlessness (it worked for Halle Berry in Monster's Ball). I'm very confident about this, but I'm not gonna bet this one.

Who Should Win: Natalie Portman (Black Swan) - Because honestly have you, the casual movie-goer, heard anything about any of these other performances. I'm sure they were all really good, but Portman has America talking. She will win this award.

Darkhorse: Annette Benning - She's the wily old veteran in this category and has just enough going for her for me not to make Natalie a absolute lock. She won the Screen Actors Guild as a Lesbian who finally meets the man who donated his sperm for their children. I haven't seen this and I probably won't (not that there's anything wrong with that) but its got that off-beat quirky, new age movie kind of approach and certainly Annette has been around for a well and has done some great work. I wouldn't be surprised if she won, but I stand by Natalie.

Best Supporting Actress:
Nominees: Amy Adams (The Fighter), Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech), Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit), Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)


Who Will Win: Melissa Leo (The Fighter) - I'm not happy with myself that I have not seen this movie, and this may be my choice to see on Saturday. It had to be good when it receives 3 acting nominations (but my boy Wahlberg gets screwed again). There is the chance that Adams and Leo could split the vote, but from what I've heard she dominated this role.

Who Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld - How about getting nominated for an Oscar in your first big screen movie. She must have done a hell of a job if she could hang with Jeff Bridges and Matt Damon. The only problem is I doubt she will win for her very first movie. I could be wrong, but this is the only major category that is totally wide open.

Darkhorse: Helena Bonham Carter - Just because there's a 20% chance that King's Speech runs aways with any close call category.

Best Director:
Nominees: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), David O. Russell (The Fighter), Tom Hooper (The King's Speech), David Fincher (The Social Network), Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)


Who Will Win: David Fincher (The Social Network) - This is very interesting, because generally speaking, the winner of best Director is also the movie that wins for best picture. However I think this trend will break, at least in my opinion. I think Fincher finally gets recognized (another trend recently has been rewarding great directors who are long overdue. see Scorsese, Martin).

Who Should Win: Tom Hooper (The King's Speech) - Again, just because there's a 20% chance that King's Speech goes for a clean sweep (except for Best Actor, that shit's over before it began).

Darkhorse: Coen Brothers (True Grit) - I think this is another two horse race between the top pictures of the night. I can't imagine the Coen's winner 2 oscars in 4 years, but you never know.

Full Winner Predictions:
Best Picture: The King's Speech
Best Director : David Fincher (The Social Network)
Best Actor : Colin Firth (The Kings Speech)
Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Original Screenplay: The King's Speech ****Inception deserves this award though***
Animated: Toy Story 3
Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland
Cinematography: Inception
Costume Design: The King's Speech
Documentary Feature: Inside Job
Documentary Short: Poster Girl
Film Editing: The Social Network
Foreign Language Film: Biutiful
Makeup: The Wolfman
Original Score: The Social Network
Original Song: "If I Rise (127 Hours)
Short Film Animated : The Lost Thing
Short Film Live Action: Na WeWe
Sound Editing: Inception
Sound Mixing: Inception
Visual Effects: Inception





ABSOLUTE LOCKS:

So here are the picks that I'm betting heavy money on :

Toy Story 3 -Best Animated Feature
Christian Bale - Best Supporting Actor
The Social Network - Best Adapted Screenplay
Colin Firth - Best Actor


I would bet my entire life savings on Toy Story 3 but these 3 options make for a very compelling parlay. Honestly, I would do ridiculous things if Toy Story doesn't win Best Animated Feature. 1 of my friends already owes Pasquale a ridiculous thing, and I would certainly join in that ridiculous event if Toy Story lose. I mean it was nominated for Best Picture, its an ABSOLUTE lock to win this category.

Well that will wrap it up. I know there wasn't as much fun stuff in this entry, but there's a lot of information. I will be very curious to see my results. So sit back and enjoy the show folks.

Until next time, as always.....STAY CLASSY!