Friday, March 26, 2010

Serious Beefs

So ETC nation, it's been nearly a week since I have spoken and I apologize for my absence. In my hiatus the number of hits on the blog has absolutely skyrocketed. It was such a drastic jump that I'm a little suspicious. Pasquale thinks it was some kind of web-bot that has skewed my numbers and he is probably right. But I'm going to pretend that we just had an insane boost in popularity and am giving the credit to Paulie Walnut's "Lawman Corollary". It just proves that you don't mess with Seagal because he always has the last laugh. Anyways I'm back I have some serious beefs.

My first beef is with Beiber Fever. Let me tell you something. I would rather suffer a slow, painful death from the black plague than ever be infected with Beiber fever. In fact, I'd like to nominate Justin Beiber to be the next teen star who is most likely to end up in a gutter somewhere reminiscing about the glory days and/or trading sex for crack. I mean let's do some peripheral research here folks. He's 16 years old but sings and acts like he is some kind of greek god/Backstreet Boy wanna-be who in all reality is probably suffering from a horrid acne breakout and is about to experience puberty and will have to explain to his legions of fans why his voice cracks make his music sound like yours truly singing "Born to Run" at a kareokee night in Jersey. For the goodness of humanity, let's hope that Justin Bieber is then next Vanilla Ice or Bobby Brown and that in the next year 5 to 10 years his name will be synonimous with the macarena and/or legwarmers; a passing fad that when you reminisce about, you feel embarassed that you lived during that era.

My next beef is with Donny Osmond. Really Donny Osmond? You have a problem with Lady Gaga? Why do I care what you have to say, Donny Osmond? When was the last time you were even remotely relevant, 1976? I would rather watch a colonoscopy than a Donny Osmond concert. In fact, I would rather have a colonoscopy performed on me than watch a Donny Osmond concert. Apparently Lady Gaga's newest music video is a little too steamy for Donny and he wants her to "use more discretion" next time because it sets a bad example for our kids. Really Donny Osmond? Have you even see the show "Cougartown". Or what about the TV shows on ABC Family nowadays? They're practically Cinemax cast-offs. Grow up Peter Pan, Count Chocula.

Now I'm not saying Lady Gaga isn't a complete kook, because she is. But if she wants to be a sideshow, who am I to tell her she can't. I would make some kind a sarcastic comment similar to what I said about Beiber, but I'm pretty sure she is already experimenting with some kind of hardcore drugs. So hopefully in the next 5 to 10 years Lady Gaga will end up in a church somewhere, bathing in holy water. "the power of christ compels you, the power of christ compels you".

My last beef of this post is with my NCAA Bracket. It's totally and utterly shot. I wouldn't be that upset if it just started to fall apart, but I was out of it from the first tip off. I haven't had a bracket this bad ever and I'm fearing that my bad picks aren't just a minor aberration, but rather my family history of bad luck picks catching up to me. Not even a hot tub time machine could have saved my bracket this year. Amazingly I'm in 7th place out of 15 in a small pool I'm in with my friends, so I'm assuming everyone's bracket is shot also.

We've got some more movie debates lined up and I will try and get a Nic Cage Movie Review incorporated for the next edition so until next time, as always....STAY SWEET!

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

The Lawman Corollary

I asked the nation to sound off on the Leo vs Cruise 5 or 10 corollary and one man responded with a counter-corollary. It is one that I can only call the Lawman Corollary. On the surface it may seem like a joke, but I must say the research and topic points are compelling. This piece was submitted by the one and only Paulie Walnuts, the genius mind that snapped the Nic Cage photo where Cage is woofing down a slice of pizza on the New York subway. Not to mention Paulie Walnuts submitted the now famous picture of Nic Cage used on the Nic Cage Movie Review System. With a body of work like that I had to give Paulie Walnuts the proper forum to speak his mind. I give you Paulie Walnut's Lawman Corollary......

Caz,


I feel like you have unintentionally fallen into the trap that so many critics stumble into. Ask any Joe Blow on the street for the best actors today, and you’ll get the same responses, to some degree – Leo, Cruise, Hanks, Denzel etc… To truly evaluate talent, on the other hand, you have to sometimes look outside of the box.

Do yourself a favor and look at the roles that Leo and Cruise have played over the last 25 years. Upon first glance, you see characters of Luxury Cruiseship Passenger/Irish Gangster/Con Man/Undercover Cop… and Pilot/Bartender/NASCAR Driver/Sports Agent, respectively. “Ohhh man! They’re such unreal actors!! Look at all of the bases they cover in those roles!!” WRONG. Take another look at all of those roles… Something look familiar amongst them? Exactly.

You may look at Leo as Frank Abagnale in Catch Me If You Can and Cruise as Lt. Daniel Kaffee in A Few Good Men and think, “These roles couldn’t be further apart.” Unfortunately, you’d be dead wrong. In the end, these actors have been playing the same role in every one of their movies over the years: Young to Middle Aged White Guy. Granted, that middle aged white guy may specialize in tracking valuable diamonds, or babysitting his savant brother, but at the end of the day, let’s call a spade a spade – They both go out and play the same role over and over again. As Kramer tells Jerry about the Bellybutton voice, “It’s played… Soooooooooo played.”

What we need to do is look for the solution of this lack of character diversification. Until you think about it, you wouldn’t even realize that there may be an actor out there who can cover multiple bases. Luckily for cinema, this actor exists, and his name is Steven Seagal. Go ahead and take a moment to scoff at that notion. To the untrained eye, it may seem a little ridiculous. However, let’s take a look through Seagal’s filmography, and you will see that I am right.

In Seagal’s less glorified career, he has played the roles of Italian, Irish, Columbian, Alaskan, Native American, Eskimo, Canadian, Russian, Buddhist, Mexican, Japanese, and Vietnamese. You read that correctly. All of those roles played by the same one man.

What makes the spectrum of characters that Seagal can cover more impressive is the fact that acting only came to him late in his career. Seagal had never been in a movie before he debuted in his first film, Above the Law (1988) at the ripe age of 37 years old. (Note: Cruise last worthwhile role in Jerry Maguire (1996) came during Cruise’s 34th year… DiCaprio is now only 35 years old.) What’s more impressive is that Seagal only got into acting as a means to exhibit his true loves: martial arts and environmental protection. For the last decade, Seagal has been writing/producing/bankrolling/acting in all of his films, enabling himself to put these issues in the forefront of the public’s eye. What Seagal really cares about is practicingand teaching Aikido, serving the last 20 years as Deputy Sheriff in Jefferson Parish, LA (a point Pasquale had touched on briefly on the ETC. in the past), making music (YouTube “Girl Its Alright” for his music video and you’ll never listen to music the same way), creating his own energy drink (Steven Seagal’s Lightning In A Bottle), and protecting nature.

My point is this: It is easy to fall into the Hollywood trap that Cruise may be the best actor of a generation, but you’d be doing acting an injustice to declare him so. With the exception of The Last Samurai (2003), Cruise has stayed in his comfort zone of middle aged white guy (and I think we can all agree it was a bit of a stretch to imagine Maverick as a Samurai. The attempt was pretty cute, but I ain’t buying it.) It’s also easy to force a child into something at an early age, disguising it as trying to “give them the best opportunity.” DiCaprio was making his first appearances on TV by the age of 16 years old. Sounds like parents forcing their own dreams onto an unknowing child to me. We’ve all seen how that works out… Jon Benet Ramsey, anyone?

Why not give some props to the guy who deserves it: The guy who isn’t afraid to go out on a limb and play someone outside of his comfort zone... The guy who doesn’t need a huge studio to back his film, because he is willing to write/direct/produce AND star in it himself, on his own dollar, while filming it on location at his personal farm.

If you don’t want to agree with me, that’s fine. Judging quality of acting is subjective. The same performance may be described as enthralling by one viewer and embarrassing by another. But there is one actor that I know Caz (and I’d hope the entire ETC Nation) respects highly, both in his Award Winning Perfomances on screen and personality off the screen: Bobby DeNiro. I’ll leave you with this. 2010 will bring us the movie Machete, starring both DeNiro and Seagal. DeNiro has NEVER signed on to act alongside Cruise. He was forced into acting alongside the young Leo in This Boy’s Dream (1993), but was able get through it by beating and abusing the pulp out of DiCaprio’s character (in which he played, surprise surprise, a young white boy.)

My opinion is voiced. Nation?
You can agree or disagree with Paulie on this one but either way I've got to hand it to Paulie. I was never a big Seagal fan, in fact I've only seen a handful of his movies including Under Siege, Hard to Kill, Under Siege 2, and Executive Decision. So naturally I was skeptical about throwing Seagal into this group. Yes Seagal has achieved a cult status among movie goers but to me he was a punchline despite my tremendous fear of Seagal. If I was arrested by Seagal in Jefferson Parrish I would be absolutely terrified. I'd probably laugh as a natural knee-jerk reaction and then have my windpipe crushed by a lightning quick karate chop that I didn't see coming.

Having said that, my only problem with the Steven Seagal Lawman Corollary is the diversity of roles argument. It is amazing that one can play that many races/religions/backgrounds whatever you want to call them. However I must say that every role I've seen him in has been some kind of martial arts expert or law officer out for revenge/killing bad guys. Yeah Cruise and Leo are playing middle aged white guys, but for the most part all the problems and emotions are different in each role. Seagal is an expert at martial arts in real life so it is very easy for him to play a skilled warrior in a movie. Along those same lines, I'm pretty sure Leo doesn't know the first thing about counterfitting checks nor does Cruise know the first thing about Naval Law. It is a compelling argument and I'm very intruiged to hear some reactions to this piece because I know Pasquale is a HUGE fan of Seagal's reality show Lawman. Excellent work Paulie Walnuts.

Looking ahead, it's one of the best times of the year in terms of sports. I will give you my full March Madness prediction as well as Spring Training report from Steamin' Willie Beamen. So until next time, as always....STAY SWEET!

Thursday, March 11, 2010

The 5 or 10 Corollary

As of this weekend I can no longer say that I am in my early 20s. You know when people ask you on your birthday if you feel older? Usually I say no but now old age is slowly setting in and a few things happened recently that really make me feel old.

1. I tripped over a pair of sneakers that were laying in the middle of the floor. I didn't notice them and almost fell and got really pissed as to why someone would leave sneakers in the middle of the floor. Trademark old person reaction.

2. I hit my shin on the corner of a coffee table and it hurt for like 2 hours afterwards. I was honestly doing the Peter Griffin move of holding my shin tight repeating the phrase "AAAAHH" for an extended period of time.

3. I downloaded a James Taylor song and Neil Young song in the same week.

4. I got someone in trouble for cheating in school. This coming from a guy who put an entire Shakespeare monolouge that I was supposed to memorize for a quiz on post it notes on the desk in front of me. (Hilarious story. Me and Dicky wrote the whole monolouge on post it notes and in turn got a 100 on the quiz. Our teacher quickly read through them and realized we were the only two people who aced it. So she called on Dicky to stand up and recite it to the class. Unfazed, Dicky said "you know, I really know it much better when I write it down". Genius.)

Now let's get to our title of this entry. This is another debate submitted by Steamin' Willie Beamen. It's very intruiging because on the surface the answer is easy, but it requires a more in depth look before a clear cut answer can be determined so I did a little research.....

The 5 or 10 Corollary

Tom Cruise vs. Leonardo Dicaprio- Before you mail it in for Leo, let's take a closer look. The laundry list of good movies for Tom may or may not outweigh the epic dominance of Leo's 5.

In my opinion the classic/defining Leo movies are as follows...Titanic, Gangs of New York, Catch Me if You Can, The Departed and Blood Diamond (sorry Pasquale, but Titanic is probably his most memorable role)

His "under the radar" movies include What's Eating Gilbert Grape, Romeo and Juliet, The Aviator, Body of Lies, Revolutionary Road and Shutter Island (which may become a defining movie for him but it's too early to determine). He's been nominated for 3 Academy Awards, for his roles in What's Eating Gilbert Grape, The Aviator and Blood Diamond. 4 of his movies have grossed more than $100 million at the box office and they are The Departed, The Aviator, Catch Me If You Can and Titanic (Shutter Island is currently at $97 million and will most likely surpass $100 mil) . The average gross of a Leo movie at the box office is $78.5 million from 19 movies.

Now let's take a look at Cruise's resume. To go with the "5 or 10" theme I'm going to list the 10 classic/defining Cruise movies and in my opinion they are....Risky Business, Top Gun, The Color of Money, Cocktail, Rain Man, Days of Thunder, A Few Good Men, The Firm, Mission Impossible, Jerry Maguire all of which were made in a span of 13 years.

Not to mention very solid movies and/or box office hits like All The Right Moves, Born on the 4th of July, Mission Impossible 2 and 3, Minority Report, The Last Samuri, Collateral, War of the Worlds, Interview With A Vampire, Vanilla Sky and a great cameo in Tropic Thunder. He also has 3 Oscar nominations for his roles in Born on the 4th of July, Jerry Maguire and Magnolia. Cruise has 15 movies that have grossed more than $100 million at the box office, including 5 in a row (the only person with more is Tom Hanks with 16) and the average gross of a Tom Cruise movie is $96.4 million from 29 movies.

Clearly Leo is a better actor who takes on more challenging and complex characters. His movie's are intense and very emotional and his 5 defining roles are simply exceptional. If you were to hold a fantasy draft with actors (something I would really be interested in doing, just to see how it plays out) Leo and Cruise would both be first round picks. In order to make my decision the criteria used are rewatchability, iconicness (one of the perks of writing is making up words), quotability, box office sucess and overall quality.

Based on those categories, I'm going to give my vote to Cruise. Yes the guy is a "stooge" according to Pasquale, and I must agree. But I could care less about what he does when he is not acting. He's clearly one of the most bankable movie stars of all time and I think his clinching category is rewatchability. The Departed can be watched every day for a month and still be amazing, however I don't think the same can be said for his other roles. As great as Blood Diamond is, I don't think I could watch it over and over. It's a phenomenal movie, but the theme is so "heavy" to quote Marty McFly that I can only watch that movie once in a while.

Leo will absolutely win an Academy Award before his career is over and I doubt Cruise will. But if you could only watch Leo movies or Cruise movies for the rest of your life and that's it, I think you would choose Cruise. A Few Good Men remains one of my favorite and most quoted movies I've ever seen. I mean who hasn't heard somebody say "you can't handle the truth". Throw in a top 3 action movie in Mission Impossible, a potential top 10 sports movie in Jerry Maguire and the greatest bartending movie in Cocktail (don't you dare say Coyote Ugly even despite the aesthetic appeal) and you've got endless entertainment.


Having said that, I am all kinds of fired up to see Leo's new movie Inception.

(In case you were wondering Nic Cage has 7 movies that have grossed more than $100 million and his average gross is $45 million from 44 movies. Which means he's had a few bombs recently including The Weather Man ($12 million), Next ($18 million) Bankok Dangerous ($15 million) and Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans which has made a whopping $1.7 million)

I want to hear some feedback on this one although I am positive what Pasquale's vote will be. Stay tuned for the next installment of the Steamin' Willie Beamen debates coming soon. So until next time, as always....Stay Classy!

Monday, March 8, 2010

The Hurt Predictions

The Hurt Locker stole the party Sunday night as it won 6 awards including the top honors Best Picture and Kathryn Bigelow winning for Best Director. It came as a big surprise to me, as I predicted that Avatar would win those awards, but it only won 3 and they were all technical awards. But looking back at my predictions blog, it is clear that I missed my calling. While I only got 3 of my predictions correct I did provide some interesting insight. Christoph Waltz won for best supporting actor, Mo'Nique won for best supporting actress and Jeff Bridges won for best actor (all 3 I correctly predicted). And while I got the other 3 predictions wrong, I did have some words of the wise, including.....

What Should Win: Avatar is the clear cut favorite, and I have to agree. It's an amazing achievement in film, but let's not forget that the Academy loves artsy, human interest movies. That's why The Hurt Locker has a great chance for the upset, which I recently saw. It's very good

Yes I was wrong in picking Avatar, and yes I excluded the end of that sentence that said "but I don't think it was better than Avatar", but I'm counting this as a partial victory. I then went on to say that if Avatar lost it would be an upset along the lines of Cash Warren landing Jessica Alba. Well now I see that anything is possible because The Hurt Locker did beat Avatar, Cash Warren did land Jessica Alba and I am still incredibly jealous of him. (We'll always have Paris Jess)

I was also incorrect in picking the best director. I thought Cameron had this in the bag, but here's what I said...

Darkhorse: Kathryn Bigelow. She made a very tense, very real war movie that wasn't over the top and didn't glorify the violence or the war (like a lot of war movies tend to do)....this award is usually a lead in for best picture, so whoever wins this award, look for the respective movie to take the top award.


Again I'm counting this as a minor victory as I was spot on about the director award being a lead in for best picture. While I am surprised I must say that I'm not disappointed. Unlike some other years in which the best picture won over a more deserving movie, (ie Chicago beating Gangs of New York, or Shakespeare in Love beating Saving Private Ryan to name a few) The Hurt Locker is a very deserving, good movie and Bigelow did an excellent job. It is also vindication for one of my favorite "good, bad movies" Point Break starring Keanu Reeves and Patrick Swayze. Bigelow was the genius director behind it, and from now on Point Break isn't just an awesome surfing/bank heist movie...it's a stylish, innovative movie made by an Oscar winning director. Thank you Kathryn Bigelow, thank you.

And now we switch gears from award winning movies to Nic Cage movies. Our long lost correspondant, Steamin' Willie Beamen is back with a great installment of movie debates. They are so interesting and intruiging that I am releasing them one at a time so as to give them their proper analysis.....


All Signs Point to Nic Cage


The Rock v Con Air v Face Off

Wow. Wow. Wow. This is an epic battle that can only be called an Ode to Nic or TNT/TBS Wet Dream. It is three of the best action movies that have ever been lead by the same man. Nic Cage had a three movie run here that you don’t read about because it doesn’t happen. All three have great second fiddles and all three have good third fiddles. These three movies were released back to back to back all within 12 months. The issue under debate is not their greatness but instead their relative success against each other.

The Rock (1996): Great plot, great cast, great setting. Mike Bay. Everyone loves the disgruntled military takeover. The movie starts with a great third fiddle Ed Harris. Maybe I am the only person who loves Ed Harris but the guy is good. Nic Cage playing the epic Stanley Goodspeed is an awesome unassuming lead. Sex scene with Vanessa Marcil that was PG, but in '96, when I was 12 was the greatest thing I had ever seen. Enter the great second fiddle Sean Connery as an unknown spy with secrets of JFK and Roswell. Great chase scene through San Fran and an awesome trolley scene with a huge dude yelling “save yourselves!!!!!”. Did I mention that most of the movie takes place on the most mysterious, amazing island on the planet?.?.? Alcatraz.

Con Air (1997) Great cast, ok plot, great cast. I mean anytime you can take Nic Cage and put him ahead of John Cusack and John Malkovich you should be good. Add in the Steve Buscemi, Ving Rhymes, and Dave Chappell. You have a hit. Great battle scenes both in air and on ground. Love the prison underdog story. It has tons of cops getting killed and the noble Cameron Poe trying to save the day. Add in the plane landing on the Vegas Stip and the movie has all the makings. Cyrus the Virus. Classic.

Face/Off (1997) Great idea. Two great actors. John Woo. No second fiddle in this one. Two main guys who have the unique and difficult task of playing both parts. I love the shift in the roles and I love how the movie plays out. Must suspend a little disbelief to think that you can take your face off but at the end when Travolta tries to cut off his face is sick in both ways. Tons of gun fights and a cool prison make this another solid action film with the solid Nic Cage.

Verdict: The winner is The Rock. Combo of Sean Connery, the best of the three Nic Cage characters (Castor Troy of Face/Off would win but he switches faces half way through the movie and turns into a puss), and it takes place at Alcatraz. All three are solid movies and the fact that they came out all within the same 12 months is simply amazing


Here's my take on the debate. Cyrus the Virus might be the greatest nickname/bad guy combo in an action movie. If Hans Gruber had a nickname he would take the cake, but since he doesn't I've got to hand it to the Virus. Con Air has Nic Cage rocking some kind of disguistingly amazing mullet thing that you can't take your eyes off of. And I agree with Steamin's take on Castor Troy in Face Off. He would have been the best Cage character but since he switches faces he becomes the sympathetic father his performance is just not as  good in the end of the movie. But the best of those movies has got to be The Rock. It's a legitimate action movie full of great quotes and the rewatchability factor is off the charts. Stan Goodspeed, what a characters. Such great cheesy lines like "do you like music? Have you ever heard Elton John, the Rocketman. I was just wondering because its you, you're the Rocketman". Or what about "I'll take pleasure in gutting you, boy". Classic.

The next post will have the rest of Steamin' Willie Beamen's debates, and they are very interesting. So keep an eye for that and let me know what your thoughts are on the Nic Cage action trifecta. So until next time, as always.....STAY SWEET!

Friday, March 5, 2010

And the Oscar Goes To...

This Sunday marks the biggest night in Hollywood, the Academy Awards, and it is one of the few events that I make sure to watch every year. And since I love movies, I like to have a solid knowledge of all the contenders and like to see as many of the nominated movies as possible. So I will break down the major categories (Best picture, actor/actress, supporting actor/actress, director) and give you my prediction for the categories.

Best Picture
This year the field has been expanded from 5 nominees to 10, something I think is a bad idea. I understand why they're doing, they want to increase viewership and by adding a few fan favorite flicks (textbook use of alliteration) . But I think it takes away from the honor of being nominated. A lot of the times the Academy doesn't make the right choice for best movie of the year, and so being nominated is a significant achievement. Now with more movies nominated it seems to take away from the recognition of being nominated. Anywayyyyys. I've seen 5 of these movies, and they are probably the top 5 movies in Avatar, Hurt Locker, Basterds, Up In The Air, and Up.

The Nominees: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The Blind Side, An Education, District 9, Precious, A Serious Man, Up In The Air, Up

What Should Win: Avatar is the clear cut favorite, and I have to agree. It's an amazing achievement in film, but let's not forget that the Academy loves artsy, human interest movies. That's why The Hurt Locker has a great chance for the upset, which I recently saw.  It's very good, but I didn't think it was the better than Avatar.

Darkhorse: My darkhorse pick is Inglourious Basterds. It's a great story and was very well done by Tarantino. It's very unique and original and uses subtitles, a known weak spot for the Academy (see Slumdog Millionaire, Life is Beautiful)

What Will Win: It's got to be Avatar. Anything else will be a major upset and disappointment. Along the lines of Cash Warren landing Jessica Alba.

Best Director

Nominees: James Cameron (Avatar), Katheryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds), Lee Daniels (Precious), Jason Reitman (Up In The Air)

Who Should Win: I think Tarantino gave his best directing performance and this movie will be recognized at the awards (most likely winning best original screenplay), but the winner has to Cameron. He gave us a movie that took years to make and he totally changed how a director can make a movie.

Darkhorse: Kathryn Bigelow. She made a very tense, very real war movie that wasn't over the top and didn't glorify the violence or the war (like a lot of war movies tend to do).

Who Will Win: It's got to be Cameron. And this award is usually a lead in for best picture, so whoever wins this award, look for the respective movie to take the top award.

Best Actor
There are some serious heavyweights this year and some serious longshots.

Nominees: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up In The Air), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Jeremey Renner (The Hurt Locker) Colin Firth (A Serious Man)

Who Should Win: Although I haven't seen 3 of these movies, my vote goes to Clooney. I said it before, he's the only actor that could play this role and he absolutely makes the movie. Without it, its a mediocre movie.

Darkhorse: Jeremy Renner. He gives a very strong performance as the lead bomb defuser and really epitimizes the theme of the movie very well in that war is a drug.

Who Will Win: Based on what I've heard and the tendency to give a "lifetime achievement" to actors, I think Jeff Bridges will win. Everyone is a sucker for a good musician movie, especially when he's a hard-drinking, raspy voiced free spirit.

Best Actress 

Nominees: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Education) Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)

Who Should Win: Unfortunetly (or maybe fortunetly) I haven't seen any of these movies, So this whole section is pure speculation. But from what I've heard I think Bullock should win. It was the most talked about role of any of the nominees and it's a far cry from the standard "rom-com" roles that she is famous for. "I watched a provactive film last night called The Net with that girl from The Bus"

Darkhorse: Gabourey Sidibe. She exploded on the scene in a much hyped movie and it wouldn't shock me if she took this award.

Who Will Win: I hate to say it but it's probably going to be Streep, that phony baloney. Despite being nominated almost every year, she hasn't won the award in 25 years and this seems like a perfect opportunity to finally get her another statue.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Christopher Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

Who Will Win: Christopher Waltz delivered a legendary performance as Colonel Hans Landa aka the Jew Hunter. Waltz had to be able to speak 4 languages fluently and still be chilling and yet comically engaging/charming at the same time. It is a haunting and memorable performance.

Darkhorse: Stanley Tucci. He's been around the block as they say in the industry, and usually plays a nice guy but he's a serial killer in this movie.

Who Will Win: Waltz is a lock. There's almost no chance anyone else will win. I haven't seen any other movie in the category but I'm very confident in this pick. If you're going to gamble, bet the farm on this one.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Penelope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga (Up In The Air), Anna Kendrick (Up In The Air), Maggie Gyllenhall (Crazy Heart), Mo'Nique (Precious)

Who Should Win: I really like Anna Kendrick. She was terrific as a young business woman trying to learn the ropes of corporate downsizing. But she will probably split the votes from that movie with Vera Farmiga, because they both were very good.

Darkhorse: Penelope Cruz. I mean just look at her. I would give her the "Time Man of the Year" award if she wanted it. This is a completely superficial prediction on my part because I have ZERO intentions of seeing that movie.

Who Will Win: I find it hard to comprehend, but I think Mo'Nique is going to win. Let's not forget that it was only a few years ago that Mo'Nique played a German spy who drowned Farva in a vat of beer in the movie Beerfest. She doesn't shave her legs, she let's her husband have sex with other people and someone she is going to win the award. And if there are any prop bets out there, she is a LOCK to histerically cry. To quote Wedding Crashers "I think we got a crier".


So to recap, I'm going with Avatar for Best Picture, James Cameron for Best Director, Jeff Bridges for Best Actor, Meryl Streep for Best Actress, Christopher Waltz for Supporting Actor and Mo'Nique for Supporting Actress. If I were to place bets I would go big on Avatar and Cameron and HEAVY on Waltz for supporting Actor. If you wanted to play some odds and longshots, I recommend Sandra Bullock for best actress, Kathryn Bigelow for Director and Quentin Tarantino to win best Original Screenplay.

We've got some good debate pieces from Steamin' Willie Beamen, and it's been a while since we've heard from him so we will post it next week. I started to read them today and they are good ones. So keep an eye out for that and until next time as always....STAY SWEET!