The Hurt Predictions

The Hurt Locker stole the party Sunday night as it won 6 awards including the top honors Best Picture and Kathryn Bigelow winning for Best Director. It came as a big surprise to me, as I predicted that Avatar would win those awards, but it only won 3 and they were all technical awards. But looking back at my predictions blog, it is clear that I missed my calling. While I only got 3 of my predictions correct I did provide some interesting insight. Christoph Waltz won for best supporting actor, Mo'Nique won for best supporting actress and Jeff Bridges won for best actor (all 3 I correctly predicted). And while I got the other 3 predictions wrong, I did have some words of the wise, including.....

What Should Win: Avatar is the clear cut favorite, and I have to agree. It's an amazing achievement in film, but let's not forget that the Academy loves artsy, human interest movies. That's why The Hurt Locker has a great chance for the upset, which I recently saw. It's very good

Yes I was wrong in picking Avatar, and yes I excluded the end of that sentence that said "but I don't think it was better than Avatar", but I'm counting this as a partial victory. I then went on to say that if Avatar lost it would be an upset along the lines of Cash Warren landing Jessica Alba. Well now I see that anything is possible because The Hurt Locker did beat Avatar, Cash Warren did land Jessica Alba and I am still incredibly jealous of him. (We'll always have Paris Jess)

I was also incorrect in picking the best director. I thought Cameron had this in the bag, but here's what I said...

Darkhorse: Kathryn Bigelow. She made a very tense, very real war movie that wasn't over the top and didn't glorify the violence or the war (like a lot of war movies tend to do)....this award is usually a lead in for best picture, so whoever wins this award, look for the respective movie to take the top award.


Again I'm counting this as a minor victory as I was spot on about the director award being a lead in for best picture. While I am surprised I must say that I'm not disappointed. Unlike some other years in which the best picture won over a more deserving movie, (ie Chicago beating Gangs of New York, or Shakespeare in Love beating Saving Private Ryan to name a few) The Hurt Locker is a very deserving, good movie and Bigelow did an excellent job. It is also vindication for one of my favorite "good, bad movies" Point Break starring Keanu Reeves and Patrick Swayze. Bigelow was the genius director behind it, and from now on Point Break isn't just an awesome surfing/bank heist movie...it's a stylish, innovative movie made by an Oscar winning director. Thank you Kathryn Bigelow, thank you.

And now we switch gears from award winning movies to Nic Cage movies. Our long lost correspondant, Steamin' Willie Beamen is back with a great installment of movie debates. They are so interesting and intruiging that I am releasing them one at a time so as to give them their proper analysis.....


All Signs Point to Nic Cage

The Rock v Con Air v Face Off

Wow. Wow. Wow. This is an epic battle that can only be called an Ode to Nic or TNT/TBS Wet Dream. It is three of the best action movies that have ever been lead by the same man. Nic Cage had a three movie run here that you don’t read about because it doesn’t happen. All three have great second fiddles and all three have good third fiddles. These three movies were released back to back to back all within 12 months. The issue under debate is not their greatness but instead their relative success against each other.

The Rock (1996): Great plot, great cast, great setting. Mike Bay. Everyone loves the disgruntled military takeover. The movie starts with a great third fiddle Ed Harris. Maybe I am the only person who loves Ed Harris but the guy is good. Nic Cage playing the epic Stanley Goodspeed is an awesome unassuming lead. Sex scene with Vanessa Marcil that was PG, but in '96, when I was 12 was the greatest thing I had ever seen. Enter the great second fiddle Sean Connery as an unknown spy with secrets of JFK and Roswell. Great chase scene through San Fran and an awesome trolley scene with a huge dude yelling “save yourselves!!!!!”. Did I mention that most of the movie takes place on the most mysterious, amazing island on the planet?.?.? Alcatraz.

Con Air (1997) Great cast, ok plot, great cast. I mean anytime you can take Nic Cage and put him ahead of John Cusack and John Malkovich you should be good. Add in the Steve Buscemi, Ving Rhymes, and Dave Chappell. You have a hit. Great battle scenes both in air and on ground. Love the prison underdog story. It has tons of cops getting killed and the noble Cameron Poe trying to save the day. Add in the plane landing on the Vegas Stip and the movie has all the makings. Cyrus the Virus. Classic.

Face/Off (1997) Great idea. Two great actors. John Woo. No second fiddle in this one. Two main guys who have the unique and difficult task of playing both parts. I love the shift in the roles and I love how the movie plays out. Must suspend a little disbelief to think that you can take your face off but at the end when Travolta tries to cut off his face is sick in both ways. Tons of gun fights and a cool prison make this another solid action film with the solid Nic Cage.

Verdict: The winner is The Rock. Combo of Sean Connery, the best of the three Nic Cage characters (Castor Troy of Face/Off would win but he switches faces half way through the movie and turns into a puss), and it takes place at Alcatraz. All three are solid movies and the fact that they came out all within the same 12 months is simply amazing

Here's my take on the debate. Cyrus the Virus might be the greatest nickname/bad guy combo in an action movie. If Hans Gruber had a nickname he would take the cake, but since he doesn't I've got to hand it to the Virus. Con Air has Nic Cage rocking some kind of disguistingly amazing mullet thing that you can't take your eyes off of. And I agree with Steamin's take on Castor Troy in Face Off. He would have been the best Cage character but since he switches faces he becomes the sympathetic father his performance is just not as  good in the end of the movie. But the best of those movies has got to be The Rock. It's a legitimate action movie full of great quotes and the rewatchability factor is off the charts. Stan Goodspeed, what a characters. Such great cheesy lines like "do you like music? Have you ever heard Elton John, the Rocketman. I was just wondering because its you, you're the Rocketman". Or what about "I'll take pleasure in gutting you, boy". Classic.

The next post will have the rest of Steamin' Willie Beamen's debates, and they are very interesting. So keep an eye for that and let me know what your thoughts are on the Nic Cage action trifecta. So until next time, as always.....STAY SWEET!

And the Oscar Goes To...

This Sunday marks the biggest night in Hollywood, the Academy Awards, and it is one of the few events that I make sure to watch every year. And since I love movies, I like to have a solid knowledge of all the contenders and like to see as many of the nominated movies as possible. So I will break down the major categories (Best picture, actor/actress, supporting actor/actress, director) and give you my prediction for the categories.

Best Picture
This year the field has been expanded from 5 nominees to 10, something I think is a bad idea. I understand why they're doing, they want to increase viewership and by adding a few fan favorite flicks (textbook use of alliteration) . But I think it takes away from the honor of being nominated. A lot of the times the Academy doesn't make the right choice for best movie of the year, and so being nominated is a significant achievement. Now with more movies nominated it seems to take away from the recognition of being nominated. Anywayyyyys. I've seen 5 of these movies, and they are probably the top 5 movies in Avatar, Hurt Locker, Basterds, Up In The Air, and Up.

The Nominees: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The Blind Side, An Education, District 9, Precious, A Serious Man, Up In The Air, Up

What Should Win: Avatar is the clear cut favorite, and I have to agree. It's an amazing achievement in film, but let's not forget that the Academy loves artsy, human interest movies. That's why The Hurt Locker has a great chance for the upset, which I recently saw.  It's very good, but I didn't think it was the better than Avatar.

Darkhorse: My darkhorse pick is Inglourious Basterds. It's a great story and was very well done by Tarantino. It's very unique and original and uses subtitles, a known weak spot for the Academy (see Slumdog Millionaire, Life is Beautiful)

What Will Win: It's got to be Avatar. Anything else will be a major upset and disappointment. Along the lines of Cash Warren landing Jessica Alba.

Best Director

Nominees: James Cameron (Avatar), Katheryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds), Lee Daniels (Precious), Jason Reitman (Up In The Air)

Who Should Win: I think Tarantino gave his best directing performance and this movie will be recognized at the awards (most likely winning best original screenplay), but the winner has to Cameron. He gave us a movie that took years to make and he totally changed how a director can make a movie.

Darkhorse: Kathryn Bigelow. She made a very tense, very real war movie that wasn't over the top and didn't glorify the violence or the war (like a lot of war movies tend to do).

Who Will Win: It's got to be Cameron. And this award is usually a lead in for best picture, so whoever wins this award, look for the respective movie to take the top award.

Best Actor
There are some serious heavyweights this year and some serious longshots.

Nominees: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up In The Air), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Jeremey Renner (The Hurt Locker) Colin Firth (A Serious Man)

Who Should Win: Although I haven't seen 3 of these movies, my vote goes to Clooney. I said it before, he's the only actor that could play this role and he absolutely makes the movie. Without it, its a mediocre movie.

Darkhorse: Jeremy Renner. He gives a very strong performance as the lead bomb defuser and really epitimizes the theme of the movie very well in that war is a drug.

Who Will Win: Based on what I've heard and the tendency to give a "lifetime achievement" to actors, I think Jeff Bridges will win. Everyone is a sucker for a good musician movie, especially when he's a hard-drinking, raspy voiced free spirit.

Best Actress 

Nominees: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Education) Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)

Who Should Win: Unfortunetly (or maybe fortunetly) I haven't seen any of these movies, So this whole section is pure speculation. But from what I've heard I think Bullock should win. It was the most talked about role of any of the nominees and it's a far cry from the standard "rom-com" roles that she is famous for. "I watched a provactive film last night called The Net with that girl from The Bus"

Darkhorse: Gabourey Sidibe. She exploded on the scene in a much hyped movie and it wouldn't shock me if she took this award.

Who Will Win: I hate to say it but it's probably going to be Streep, that phony baloney. Despite being nominated almost every year, she hasn't won the award in 25 years and this seems like a perfect opportunity to finally get her another statue.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Christopher Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

Who Will Win: Christopher Waltz delivered a legendary performance as Colonel Hans Landa aka the Jew Hunter. Waltz had to be able to speak 4 languages fluently and still be chilling and yet comically engaging/charming at the same time. It is a haunting and memorable performance.

Darkhorse: Stanley Tucci. He's been around the block as they say in the industry, and usually plays a nice guy but he's a serial killer in this movie.

Who Will Win: Waltz is a lock. There's almost no chance anyone else will win. I haven't seen any other movie in the category but I'm very confident in this pick. If you're going to gamble, bet the farm on this one.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Penelope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga (Up In The Air), Anna Kendrick (Up In The Air), Maggie Gyllenhall (Crazy Heart), Mo'Nique (Precious)

Who Should Win: I really like Anna Kendrick. She was terrific as a young business woman trying to learn the ropes of corporate downsizing. But she will probably split the votes from that movie with Vera Farmiga, because they both were very good.

Darkhorse: Penelope Cruz. I mean just look at her. I would give her the "Time Man of the Year" award if she wanted it. This is a completely superficial prediction on my part because I have ZERO intentions of seeing that movie.

Who Will Win: I find it hard to comprehend, but I think Mo'Nique is going to win. Let's not forget that it was only a few years ago that Mo'Nique played a German spy who drowned Farva in a vat of beer in the movie Beerfest. She doesn't shave her legs, she let's her husband have sex with other people and someone she is going to win the award. And if there are any prop bets out there, she is a LOCK to histerically cry. To quote Wedding Crashers "I think we got a crier".


So to recap, I'm going with Avatar for Best Picture, James Cameron for Best Director, Jeff Bridges for Best Actor, Meryl Streep for Best Actress, Christopher Waltz for Supporting Actor and Mo'Nique for Supporting Actress. If I were to place bets I would go big on Avatar and Cameron and HEAVY on Waltz for supporting Actor. If you wanted to play some odds and longshots, I recommend Sandra Bullock for best actress, Kathryn Bigelow for Director and Quentin Tarantino to win best Original Screenplay.

We've got some good debate pieces from Steamin' Willie Beamen, and it's been a while since we've heard from him so we will post it next week. I started to read them today and they are good ones. So keep an eye out for that and until next time as always....STAY SWEET!